Monthly Archives: April 2017

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April 24, 2017 by: James Bone Categories: Risk Management How Cognition Became a Weapon: The Trust Conundrum

“It takes two to do the trust tango–the one who risks (the trustor) and the one who is trustworthy (the trustee); each must play their role.” –Charles H. Green, The Trusted Advisor

In the world in which we live and breathe, “trust” is developed over repeated interactions between parties with whom a relationship has been built. In the world of the Internet, trust is established much more quickly and subconsciously based on cognitive queues of similarity or credibility that are not always reliable.  This apparent conflict of trust paradigm is the Trust Conundrum. The trust conundrum weakness has become the preferred and most successfully executed attack posture for hackers to exploit due to the relative ease of creating trust in the Internet. Cognitive hacks, or also known as; phishing, social engineering or by other names is the biggest threat in cybersecurity as the level of sophistication and variants of these attacks evolve.

Trust in the Internet is not a new or novel topic for those who have followed these trends over many years. In 2003, the University of Pennsylvania’s Lions Center was created to study cyber security, information privacy and trust. [1] The center was established in 2003 to serve three main purposes: (a) conduct research to detect and remove threats of information misuse to the human society: mitigate risk, reduce uncertainty, and enhance predictability and trust; (b) produce leading scholars in interdisciplinary cyber-security research; and (c) become a national leader in information assurance education. In the same year, the University of Oxford’s Oxford Internet Institute produced a research report titled, “Trust in the Internet: The Social Dynamics of an Experience Technology”.[2] Today’s headlines would suggest that we have much more to learn about trust in the Internet.

After reviewing a variety of studies on the topic of trust in the Internet the general findings conclude that we have a healthy level of skepticism while conducting business in the Internet due to the perceived risks yet we trust the Internet to conduct an ever-expanding list of services. The studies suggest that our use and behavior on the Internet is driven by trust. Generally speaking, the more we use the Internet the more trust we have, a concept called cybertrust. Conversely, we trust (“net confidence”) the Internet more as our use increases exposing us to more threats (“net risks”). This conundrum is partly the reason why cyber attacks continue to grow unabated and demonstrate a huge and growing gap not fully addressed by either cyber security professionals, technology frameworks and standards or policies and procedures designed to mitigate these risks. These studies are dated and much more research on the topic of trust in the Internet is still needed but the initial research provides some insight into the root cause of the problem.

The tension between developing net confidence and the threat of net risks will not be solved in this article. The observation however is that consumer behaviors on the Internet are beginning to change. In a more recent survey posted on the blog of the website of the National Telecommunications & Information Administration (NTIA) for the U.S. Department of Commerce noted, “NTIA’s analysis of recent data shows that Americans are increasingly concerned about online security and privacy at a time when data breaches, cybersecurity incidents, and controversies over the privacy of online services have become more prominent. These concerns are prompting some Americans to limit their online activity, according to data collected for NTIA in July 2015 by the U.S. Census Bureau. This survey included several privacy and security questions, which were asked of more than 41,000 households that reported having at least one Internet user.”[3]

The implications of these and other research suggests that if nothing is done the growth and huge economic benefits of ecommerce may be curtailed over time as “trust” diminishes as a result of increasing threats in cyberspace. The NTIA’s July 2015 survey found, “Nineteen percent of Internet-using households—representing nearly 19 million households—reported that they had been affected by an online security breach, identity theft, or similar malicious activity during the 12 months prior.”

While most organizations have been primarily concerned with developing a defensive posture for internal security of customer data it is becoming increasingly clear that the development of trust will become a critical factor in the expansion of services and uses of the Internet by the government, business and the providers of new technology. Therefore, we are at the beginnings of a crossroads where innovation, growth and security may depend as much on developing trust in the Internet as it does on the features and benefits of products and services provided by the Internet. There are few easy solutions to this problem as demonstrated by the hacking of the DNC and the growth of breaches more broadly. However, given the lack of progress made since the early research into the issue of trust demonstrates that a more comprehensive approach is needed. Joint ventures from academia, industry, government and the military and law enforcement must be forged to address these issues of privacy, security and the open Internet. The window of opportunity may be closing.

 

 

 

 

[1] https://ist.psu.edu/sites/default/files/u19/cyber_security.pdf

[2] https://www.oii.ox.ac.uk/archive/downloads/publications/RR3.pdf

[3] https://www.ntia.doc.gov/blog/2016/lack-trust-internet-privacy-and-security-may-deter-economic-and-other-online-activities

by: James Bone Categories: Risk Management Risk Management and the Value Proposition

If you haven’t notice lately, risk management is going through a global transformation wherever you look!

The COSO ERM framework is being revised with a new tagline, Enterprise Risk Management – Aligning Risk with Strategy and PerformanceDennis Chelsey, PwC’s Global Risk Consulting leader and lead partner for the COSO ERM effort recently stated, “Enterprise risk management has evolved significantly since 2004 and stands at the verge of providing significant value as organizations pursue value in a complex and uncertain environment.” Chelsey goes on to state that, “This update establishes the relationship between risk and strategy, positions risk in the context of an organization’s performance, and helps organizations anticipate so that can get ahead of risk and embrace a mindset of resilience.”

Additionally, the ISO 31000:2009 risk framework is being revised as well. “The revision of ISO 31000:2009, Risk management – Principles and guidelines, has moved one step further to Draft International Standard (DIS) stage where the draft is now available for public comment,” according to the International Organization of Standardization’s website. As explained by Jason Brown, Chair of ISO’s technical committee ISO/TC 262, Risk management, “The message our group would like to pass on to the reader of the [DIS], Draft International Standard, is to critically assess if the current draft can provide the guidance required while remaining relevant to all organizations in all countries. It is important to keep in mind that we are not drafting an American or European standard, a public or financial services standard, but much rather a generic International Standard.”

And finally, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, is rolling out, in phases, its final updated reform measures (Basel III) to ensure bank capital and liquidity measures provide resilience in financial markets to systemic risks. The magnitude and breadth of these changes may feel overwhelming depending on where you sit on the spectrum of change impacting your business.

Likewise, more complex and systemic risks such as cybersecurity, prompted the National Institute of Standards and Technology to revise and update its Cybersecurity Framework not to mention changes to Dodd Frank, Healthcare and a host of other regulatory mandates. So where does the value proposition happen in risk management? Given the increasing velocity of change in business and regulatory requirements how does a risk professional in compliance, audit, risk and/or IT security demonstrate an effective and repeatable value proposition while struggling to keep pace?

In order to begin we must first acknowledge that, like risk management, the term “value” has very different meanings for different stakeholders. A shareholder’s definition of value will most likely be different than a customer’s definition. Given this context, we can focus on the “value” proposition derived from the role of a risk professional’s contribution to each stakeholder. However, we need more information to fully understand how a risk professional might approach this topic. If you are an internal auditor you may take a risk-based approach during the audits you perform. If your role is that of a regulatory compliance professional ensuring the effectiveness of internal controls, ethics and awareness are used to derive value. The same is true for the contributions each oversight team makes. In studying other risk professionals, I have begun to learn that I need to expand my definition of value to incorporate disciplines beyond my own skill set.

Sean Lyons, author of “Corporate Defense and The Value Preservation Imperative,” focuses on key strategies to preserve value by expanding the Corporate Defense model from 3 to 5 Lines of Defense creating an enterprise-wide risk approach. Andrea Bonime-Blanc, author of “The Reputation Risk Handbook,” has developed a focus on the importance of understanding the difference in Reputation Management and the role of Reputation Risk. Dr. Bonime-Blanc makes a compelling argument for understanding the strategic importance of developing clear steps to manage key risks within a firm that pose the greatest potential of damage to a firm’s reputation by adopting an enterprise risk approach to reputation risks. In thinking about where my practice adds value, I have proposed a Cognitive Risk Framework for Cybersecurity and extended the model to include enterprise risk management. The basis for a cognitive risk framework is derived from decades of research in behavioral economics, cognitive/decision science, and a deep look at the human-machine interaction as a way to infuse human elements into risk management much the same as automobile manufacturers, NASA & aerospace industries have redesigned the interior of their respective vehicles to account for human behavior to make the travel experience safer.

What is exciting about these and many more new developments in the risk profession is that “value” can be derived by each of these approaches. In fact, while each practice may seem uniquely different the differences compliment because risk is not one dimensional. The complexity of the risk profile of many firms has changed and evolved in ways that require more than one view on how to manage the myriad of threats facing a firm. The permutations of risk exposure will only expand given the velocity of change in technology and the speed of computing power being acquired by and expected of our competitors, customers, and adversaries alike.

The challenge for organizations is to not assume that a one dimensional approach to risk management is sufficient for dealing with three dimensional risks with a great deal of uncertainty.

The value proposition of risk management viewed from this perspective suggests that a cross-disciplinary approach is needed. Even greater value can be created by risk management through thoughtful design, value preservation and sustainable practices and behaviors.  By this standard, risk management informs and supports the strategic plan through the value it [risk management] creates for each of its respective stakeholders. The lesson is that organizations should not get stuck in one dogmatic approach to managing risks while assuming it is sufficient for today’s risk environment. What we learn from others is simply another way that value is created for the organization.

by: James Bone Categories: Risk Management Truth Is Fungible in Cyberspace

“In 1981, Carl Landwehr observed that “Without a precise definition of what security means and how a computer can behave, it is meaningless to ask whether a particular computer system is secure.”[i]

Researchers George Cybenko, Annarita Giani, and Paul Thompson of Dartmouth College introduced the term “Cognitive Hack” in 2002 in an article entitled, “Cognitive Hacking, a Battle for the Mind”. “The manipulation of perception —or cognitive hacking—is outside the domain of classical computer security, which focuses on the technology and network infrastructure.”[i] This is why existing security practice is no longer effective at detecting, preventing or correcting security risks, like cyber attacks.

Almost 40 years after Landwehr’s warning cognitive hacks have become the most common tactic used by more sophisticated hackers or advanced persistent threats. Cognitive hacks are the least understood and operate below human conscious awareness allowing these attacks to occur in plain sight. To understand the simplicity of these attacks one need look no further than the evening news. The Russian attack on the Presidential election is the best and most obvious example of how effective these attacks are. In fact, there is plenty of evidence that these attacks were refined in elections of emerging countries over many years.

A March 16, 2016 article in Bloomberg, “How to Hack an Election” chronicled how these tactics were used in Nicaragua, Panama, Honduras, El Salvador, Colombia, Mexico, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Venezuela long before they were used in the American elections.

“Cognitive hacking [Cybenko, Giani, Thompson, 2002] can be either covert, which includes the subtle manipulation of perceptions and the blatant use of misleading information, or overt, which includes defacing or spoofing legitimate norms of communication to influence the user.” The reports of an army of autonomous bots creating “fake news” or, at best, misleading information in social media and popular political websites is a classic signature of a cognitive hack.

Cognitive hacks are deceptive and highly effective because of a basic human bias to believe in those things that confirm our own long held beliefs or beliefs held by peer groups whether social, political or collegial. Our perception is “weaponized” without our knowledge or full understanding we are being manipulated. Cognitive hacks are most effective in a networked environment where “fake news” can be picked up in social media sites as trending news or “viral” campaigns encouraging even more readers to be influenced by the attacks without any sign an attack has been orchestrated. In many cases, the viral nature of the news is a manipulation through the use of an army of autonomous bots on various social media sites.

At its core the manipulation of behavior has been in use for years in the form of marketing, advertisements, political campaigns and in times of war. In the Great World Wars, patriotic movies were produced to keep public spirits up or influence the induction of volunteers to join the military to fight. ISIS has been extremely effective using cognitive hacks to lure an army of volunteers to their Jihad even in the face of the perils of war. We are more susceptible than we believe which creates our vulnerability to cyber risks and allows the risk to grow unabated in the face of huge investments in security. Our lack of awareness to these threats and the subtlety of the approach make cognitive hacks the most troubling in security.

I wrote the book, “Cognitive Hack, The New Battleground in Cybersecurity.. the Human Mind”, to raise awareness of these threats. Security professionals must better understand how these attacks work and the new vulnerabilities they create to employees, business partners and organizations alike. But more importantly, these threats are growing in sophistication and vary significantly requiring security professionals to rethink assurance in their existing defensive posture.

The sensitivity of the current investigation into political hacks by the House and Senate Intelligence Committees may prevent a full disclosure of the methods and approaches used however recent news accounts leave little doubt to their effect as described more than 14 years ago by researchers and more recently in Paris and Central and South American elections. New security approaches will require a much better understanding of human behavior and collaboration from all stakeholders to minimize the impact of cognitive hacks.

I proposed a simple set of approaches in my book however security professionals must begin to educate themselves of this new, more pervasive threat and go beyond simple technology solutions to defend their organization against them.  If you are interested in receiving research or other materials about this risk or approaches to address them please feel free to reach out.

[i] http://www.ists.dartmouth.edu/library/6.pdf

[i] C.E. Landwehr, “Formal Models of Computer Security,” Computing Survey, vol. 13, no. 3, 1981, pp. 247-278.